Lithuania is increasingly turning its attention to Cuba as part of a broader effort to maintain US engagement in Europe and ensure continued American focus on NATO’s eastern flank, officials and analysts say.
The strategy reflects concerns in Vilnius that the administration of US President Donald Trump is less focused on Europe and more oriented toward the Western Hemisphere, where issues such as migration, organised crime and geopolitical competition dominate Washington’s agenda.
Lithuanian policymakers see the presence of US troops in the region as the cornerstone of deterrence against Russia. As a result, they are seeking new ways to align their foreign policy priorities with those of the United States.
“One cannot expect a one-way relationship, where we receive support only when we need it,” Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys told LRT. “We must understand our allies’ interests and find where our agendas overlap.”
Engaging Washington through the Western hemisphere
As part of this approach, Budrys took part in a security forum in Miami in late March focused on assumed threats in the Western Hemisphere, including drug trafficking, mass migration and the alleged influence of Russia, China and Iran.
During the visit, he met with Cuban-born human rights activist Rosa Maria Paya, businessman and philanthropist Teo Babun, and Tony Costa.
Lithuania’s outreach reflects the growing influence of Cuban-American and Hispanic lawmakers in Washington. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, a key figure in Trump’s administration, is of Cuban descent, and many members of Congress have roots in Latin America.
This demographic shift has contributed to a stronger US policy focus on the Western Hemisphere, Lithuanians believe, while fewer lawmakers have direct ties to Europe.
A longstanding hard line on Cuba
Lithuania’s suspicious stance toward Cuba is not new and it mainly emanates from Vilnius’ anti-communist and pro-US sympathies. The country remains the only member of the European Union that has not ratified the bloc’s 2016 cooperation agreement with Havana.
In 2021, Lithuania’s parliament adopted a resolution opposing ratification, arguing that it would legitimise the policies of Cuba’s communist government.
More recently, Vilnius abstained in a United Nations General Assembly vote calling for an end to the US embargo on Cuba and reportedly encouraged Ukraine to support Washington’s position.
Budrys described the approach as mutually beneficial.
“I see a win-win cooperation with America,” he said. “We are becoming more active in the Western Hemisphere, which the US defines as a priority area, and we expect sustained attention to NATO’s eastern flank in return.”
Cuba in crisis
The outreach comes as Cuba faces mounting economic and social challenges under President Miguel Diaz-Canel.
Due to Washington’s draconian sanctions, the island has been hit by energy shortages, frequent blackouts and disruptions to water supply, contributing to a broader humanitarian crisis. External support which has previously provided essential lifelines has also weakened: Venezuela, once a key supplier of subsidized oil, has reduced assistance under Washington’s pressure, while other partners such as Russia and Iran are constrained by their own geopolitical challenges.
US policy appears focused on increasing leverage over Havana, potentially pushing for economic opening rather than outright regime change, analysts say.
Creative diplomacy by a small state
Lithuanian lawmakers argue that engaging on Cuba resonates strongly with US policymakers, particularly those from Florida, where a large share of the population has Cuban roots.
“Cuba is like a foot in the door for the opponent in the American mindset,” said Ruslanas Baranovas, a member of the parliamentary foreign affairs committee, comparing it to Russia’s Kaliningrad that is wedged inside the EU and NATO zone in Europe.
Analysts say Lithuania’s approach reflects the constraints faced by smaller countries, which lack the resources for large-scale lobbying in Washington.
Instead, Vilnius has sought to build relationships with influential groups aligned with US priorities, including ties with Israel, Taiwan and Cuban opposition figures.
“It is a common understanding in Lithuania that if we want to be relevant to US policymakers, we must also address their concerns,” said Dovilė Jakniūnaitė, a political scientist at Vilnius University’s Institute of International Relations and Political Science.
Lithuania has previously aligned itself with US foreign policy in major initiatives, including the 2003 invasion of Iraq and NATO’s mission in Afghanistan, moves widely seen as strengthening bilateral ties.
“These decisions brought clear benefits, but in other cases policymakers must think more creatively about how to contribute,” Jakniūnaitė said.
Influence of Hispanic lawmakers
The growing role of Hispanic lawmakers in Congress also shapes Lithuania’s strategy.
Former Lithuanian ambassador to the United States Žygimantas Pavilionis, now a conservative lawmaker, said Cuban-American politicians have played a leading role in shaping the views of broader Hispanic caucuses in Congress, particularly on issues related to communism and authoritarian regimes.
He noted that Lithuania’s past decisions on Cuba – such as blocking EU initiatives seen as supportive of Havana – have earned it recognition among some US lawmakers.
Balancing risks and opportunities
Despite the potential benefits, Lithuania’s approach carries risks. Not all European countries share its hard-line stance on Cuba, with some favouring engagement over isolation.
Vilnius is seeking to build a coalition within the EU to support stricter policies, including sanctions on Cuban officials.
“We aim to be a voice that brings together like-minded countries,” Budrys said. “Not all European states see this as a problem, but we represent a different view.”
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