International experts have warned that Lithuania’s first offshore wind farm, Curonian Nord, may face challenges to being completed on schedule, citing market conditions and financing risks.
The assessment was conducted by Wood Mackenzie, a global renewable energy research and consulting firm, at the request of the supervisory board of state-owned utility group Ignitis Group, which is developing the project together with its partner Ocean Winds.
Ignitis told BNS it will take the experts’ recommendations into account.
According to Wood Mackenzie, the biggest risks are linked to supply chain disruptions, rising costs and limited financing, rather than technical work. The report noted that Ignitis Renewables, the group’s renewable energy subsidiary, plans to make its final investment decision before completing geotechnical surveys, which could add uncertainty.
“The greatest delay risk comes from broader market conditions: challenges affecting electricity offtake, supply chain constraints and the availability of financing, not technical work,” the report said. It recommended extending the period between finalising surveys and making the investment decision to ensure design work is based on complete data.
The analysts also warned that project costs could rise if component prices increase or financing becomes harder to secure. Since 2023, the offshore wind sector has faced strained supply chains, inflation and weaker investor appetite, with demand expected to outpace supply through 2030.
Wood Mackenzie estimated that Ignitis Renewables’ baseline capital expenditure forecast is about 23 percent below current market levels.
Even so, the experts concluded that investing in Curonian Nord remains justified, noting costs are in line with similar projects in Denmark, Belgium and the United Kingdom.
Ignitis Renewables said the evaluation confirmed that surveys, design work and procurement are being carried out to standards and that project risks are being managed appropriately.
Ignitis acknowledged earlier this year that financing difficulties could emerge if it cannot secure long-term electricity sales contracts, potentially delaying the start of commercial operations beyond 2030. CEO Darius Maikštėnas said in July that the Baltic Sea wind farm could realistically be completed between 2031 and 2033.
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