There is no reason to worry after the Estonian prime minister said NATO’s current defence plans allow for the occupation of the Baltic states, Lithuanian politicians have said.
NATO’s current plans envisage that the Baltic states would be overrun but then be retaken 180 days later, Financial Times quoted Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas as saying on Wednesday.
Noting that the invasion of Ukraine has been going on for over 100 days, Kallas said: “If you compare the sizes of Ukraine and the Baltic countries, it would mean the complete destruction of countries and our culture.”
Read more: Estonian PM says Baltic states would be ‘wiped off the map’ under current NATO plans
Such remarks were meant to “raise the political temperature” in the run-up to the NATO summit at the end of June, according to Laurynas Kasčiūnas, chairman of the Lithuanian parliamentary Committee on National Security and Defence.
“I don't think that 180 days is the deadline we are talking about here. Certainly not. [...] We are now doing our best to make the reinforcement strategies as fast and effective as possible, to make the reaction time as short as possible,” Kasčiunas told reporters at the Lithuanian parliament Seimas.
According to Lithuanian Defence Minister Arvydas Anušauskas, politicians do not always know all details of the defence plans, adding that such plans often include different scenarios.
“There are no, and there cannot be any assumptions about ceding territory in advance,” the minister said. “But military plans are drawn up assuming that if there’s a move in one place and some territory has to be ceded, what happens next? Do we leave that territory? No. It’s about generating forces over a certain period of time.”
The mentioned 180 days are reserved for the generation of a very large force, Anušauskas said and urged “not to get upset by every politician’s statement”.
Bolstering capabilities
Lithuanian politicians agree with the Estonian prime minister’s position that NATO plans need to be updated and amended to increase capabilities allocated to Baltic countries.
“Looking at the current situation, Russia’s aggression in Ukraine, the defence plans are being changed and the changes are likely to be completed by the summer of next year,” Anušauskas said, adding that it is not a simple process, as plans are being drawn for forces to enter the country.
Speaking last week, Anušauskas said NATO agrees on the development of a brigade-sized allied unit for Lithuania, but the final wording will be revealed during the upcoming NATO summit in Madrid.
The Berlin-led brigade would be partially deployed in Lithuania, with the remaining part stationed in Germany, he said. However, Vilnius wants to eventually have the brigade fully deployed in the country, created based on the existing allied battalion deployed in Lithuania since 2017.
Meanwhile, Lithuania’s Chief of Defence Valdemaras Rupšys says that “more than a brigade” will be needed to fulfil the alliance’s promise not to give up a single centimetre of NATO’s territory, so Lithuania must be ready to expand the host nation’s capabilities.
Read more: LRT FACTS. Did Germany backtrack from deploying a brigade in Lithuania?
Kasčiūnas also said the existing NATO strategy of deterrence by punishment, ie by retaking the occupied territories, must be replaced by deterrence by denial, ie by providing a country with capabilities that would prevent “any intention to even try to test Article 5”.
“I believe the [Estonian] prime minister is speaking about our regional concerns as the NATO summit approaches,” he said.
In his words, the Estonian politician’s position that the aim should be to immediately stop a potential aggressor is absolutely correct and in line with the common position of the Baltic states.
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