Since the Second World War, Moscow has been paranoid that the West has plans to attack Russia. Ultimately, this fear has fed into the Kremlin's current policy. “They are paranoid and always will be, because they think the West is technically better, richer, so why not attack the weaker one?” said John Hughes-Wilson, a military intelligence expert, historian and a retired British colonel.
In an exclusive interview with LRT.lt, he said the threat to Vladimir Putin was not the West, but the Russians themselves.
“I think the danger of an assassination of every Russian leader comes from inside Russia. When he gets a knife in the back, it will be by a Russian, not by an American,” said Hughes-Wilson who attended the 7th Leonidas Donskis Conference organised by the Andrei Sakharov Centre at the Vytautas Magnus University in Lithuania’s Kaunas.
In your book, you claimed that the unprofessionalism of the Kyiv intelligence services led to Russia’s 2022 invasion being the way it was. Why?
The reason is complex. First of all, Russians regard Ukraine as part of their empire, the Greater Russia. And because of that, the Russians have always wanted to control Crimea and Sevastopol because it's their only warm water point. The Black Sea is warm, but if you go up to Saint Petersburg and Kronstadt, it is cold, so it’s of no use to the Russians – the Russians need that warm water port.
The Russians also believe that the Donbas region is Russian, because so many people there speak Russian, want to be Russian. Vladimir Putin decided he wanted to make a great attack and he has bad intelligence.
The Ukrainians were warned that Russia was mobilising. But the Ukrainians, let's be honest, were fighting among themselves. The Ukrainian [politics] were deeply corrupt and I don't think they took the threat very seriously. So when the attack did come, it came as a big shock.
Do you think Ukraine has learnt the lessons of the war?
They definitely learned that intelligence was important and needed. There are only two things that count in war, and I say this as a professional soldier. First is intelligence, knowing who the enemy is, where it is, and what it’s going to do. Secondly, logistics – weapons, equipment. This is assuming, of course, your soldiers will fight, but that's a given.
Now Ukraine's intelligence has gotten very good. But how? They don't have a lot of spies in Russia, but they don't need spies because of the Americans and the British.
Lately, one of the most talked-about events in the war was the surprise Ukrainian invasion of the Kursk region. Do you think that Russian intelligence did not anticipate the operation?
I think it came as a big surprise to Russia. It was a clever move by the Ukrainians, because Volodymyr Zelensky has seized part of Russian territory and will use it as a bargaining chip.
We can imagine him saying to the Russians: 'Ok, now you have a piece of Ukraine east of the Dnieper River, and I have a piece of Russia.' He knows that the only possible end for Ukraine is negotiations. There's not going to be a big victory over Russia, forget it.
But Zelensky knows that when the peace treaty comes and there will be peace talks, he has something to sell to Russia to balance Russia's claim to the Donbas.
Moving on to a different topic. What are the targets of Russia’s intelligence services in Europe, the US?
They are interested in politics and how to influence local politics and make them friendly toward Moscow, because the Russians are paranoid. The Russians are scared, they have been ever since 1945, when Stalin said to the Politburo to be very careful of the Americans.
If you look at a map of Russia, there are seven ways Russia can be invaded – from China, from Europe, from Norway and from Turkey. Russia is surrounded by dangers and, in the Russian mind, the capitalists. That's you and me – we are out to get them and so they're always terrified.
And don't forget, during the Cold War, they actually believed that the Americans and NATO had a plan for the first nuclear strike on Russia to obliterate Moscow. But there was never a plan to do that.
There was a plan If Russia started a nuclear war, America and Britain would retaliate, but we would never start one. Rainer Rupp, Agent Topaz who was the Russian man at the NATO headquarters, told Moscow that there was no plan to attack Russia. The Politburo replied that there must be, because Russia has such a plan. They are paranoid and they always will be because they think the West is technically better and richer.
Are there indications that the Russian intelligence services are still actively working in Europe?
Absolutely, there is an SVR (the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service) presence in the Baltics, of course, in Scandinavia, in Poland, in Germany, in Turkey, because that is the near abroad for Russia.
But also they have their strategic intelligence because they're looking carefully at the Americans. The problem for the Russians is that they still rely very heavily on human intelligence.
Do you think Putin is afraid of the Western secret services targeting him directly?
No, I don't think his danger of assassination comes from the West. I think the danger of an assassination of every Russian leader comes from inside Russia. When he gets a knife in the back, it will be by a Russian, not by an American.
We spoke a lot about Russia, but how do the Western intelligence services work? Are they as active as they were during the Cold War?
Overall, all they want to do is keep an eye on Russia. It needs to watch Russia very carefully. But the West is not worried by Russia because Putin does not wish to attack Germany, he doesn't want to invade the Baltics, he doesn't want to come to Vilnius. He has enough problems at home with the economy and with Ukraine and he doesn't want new adventures, therefore, Russia is self-contained – that is the Western intelligence view.
But It does not mean that Russia, trapped in a corner, thinking that we're out to get them, will not react violently. More or less, the Western approach for dealing with Russia is still ‘don’t poke a bear with a stick’.
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