Despite the current government’s combative stance towards China and enthusiastic embrace of relations with Taiwan, a new study shows that the general public would prefer friendly and pragmatic ties with Beijing.
Almost half of people in Lithuania believe China is a profitable market and that Lithuania should be pragmatic and refrain from criticising it, a new poll shows: 47.6 percent of respondents agreed with this statement, while 21 percent disagreed and 31.5 percent were neutral or undecided.
Presented by the Eastern Europe Studies Centre, the study also shows that 44 percent of Lithuanians believe that the country’s economy would struggle without investments from China. More than a third did not have a clear opinion on the issue and only a minority disagreed.
Researchers from Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia conducted the poll as part of a study on China’s informational influence in the Baltic states.
Lukewarm about Taiwan
The poll was carried out as Lithuania has been deepening its ties with Taiwan over the past few years and trying to reduce China’s influence.
Ties between Vilnius and Taipei peaked when a Taiwanese representative office was opened in Lithuania in the autumn of 2021, and Lithuania opened a trade office on the island in November 2022.
However, the poll suggests that 37.2 percent of people in the country believe that support for Taiwan does not bring any economic benefits to Lithuania and is less important than maintaining good economic relations with China.
The biggest share, however, 40.1 percent, had no opinion on the issue, while 22.7 percent disagreed.
Most Lithuanians were also undecided on whether Taiwan is part of China, with 44.6 percent having no opinion on the matter. More than a third disagreed and a fifth agreed.
Lithuania’s deepening ties with Taiwan have infuriated Beijing and forced it to downgrade its diplomatic representation in Lithuania and block Lithuanian exports and imports last year.
A higher proportion of Lithuanians agreed that Lithuania was to blame for the Vilnius-Beijing dispute. More than a third did not have a clear opinion on the issue and slightly more than a fifth disagreed with the statement, the poll shows.
Almost two-thirds, 63.3 percent, believe that Lithuania should not interfere in China’s internal affairs. According to the researchers, these beliefs are partly related to a deep-rooted perception that their country lacks power and influence in global affairs.
Undecided majority
When people were told that China’s information technology is affordable and therefore there should be no restrictions on its use in Lithuania, even if there are some security risks, almost 40 percent did not have a clear opinion on this issue. More than a third agreed with the statement, while more than a fifth disagreed.
Forty percent agreed that Lithuania’s industrial sector and consumers are heavily dependent on supply chains from China, and therefore, they thought, the country should not support any EU economic sanctions against China.
More than a fifth disagreed, while more than a third were neutral or undecided.
“These results are concerning, considering that Beijing’s unofficial sanctions on Lithuanian manufacturers through import and export restrictions in the China-centred global supply chains have been a major component of the recent Chinese pressure campaign,” the study states.
A majority of the respondents, 59.4 percent, agreed that good relations with China are economically and politically beneficial for both countries. A minority of Lithuanians disagreed, while just under a third did not have a clear opinion on the issue.
A larger proportion of Lithuanians are undecided about whether China is a benevolent country, and respondents were also undecided on whether China respects small countries, such as Lithuania.
The study was carried out between June and August 2023 by the Eastern Europe Studies Centre in cooperation with the Latvian Institute of International Affairs and the International Center for Defense and Security in Estonia. A total of 3,022 people were polled in the Baltic states.
In Lithuania, 1,015 people were interviewed by Spinter Tyrimai during online and telephone interviews.
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