The surprise Hamas attack on Israel added urgency to the ongoing debate in Lithuania – can the country defend itself until help arrives?
A threat of a similar cross-border attack in Lithuania as in Israel seemed quite real when Russia’s Wagner group moved into Belarus earlier this year. Since then, the talk of a potential hybrid attack has died down.
Politicians reassured that the country's security was being taken care of – the country has drawn up defence plans, various drills are held to test military readiness, and the concept of society-wide resistance is taking shape.
Experts, however, are not convinced.
Andrejus Šildiajevas, a Lithuanian military instructor in Ukraine, said the country needs to prepare to resist – on its own.
“In the first few weeks, no one would help us, until everyone [in NATO] gets their act together. Vilnius is 30 kilometres from the border and we will lose half the city [by the time help arrives],” he said.
“We must know how to defend ourselves. There is no other way to say it,” Šildiajevas added.
What is being done?
Speaking to LRT.lt, Laurynas Kasčiūnas, chairman of the Seimas Committee on National Security and Defence (NSGK), said border guards have drawn up plans to respond to attacks other than a fully-fledged invasion, including sabotage and infiltration of armed groups.
"We have modelled it on one of the worst scenarios, probably the worst scenario, namely that of an incursion across the border, not to occupy, but to cause chaos, kill people, take hostages, cause terror, and so on, which is exactly what Hamas has done,” the MP said. “If we think of Wagner, their modus operandi is very similar."
According to Kasčiūnas, the first response to incidents on the border would be down to the border guards. After assessing the threat, other forces, including military and special police units, would then rush to their aid.
“So they react by catching these terrorists, eliminating, intercepting, and deterring them. This is the idea of how the state should act when there are no heavy weapons involved,” Kasčiūnas said.
Aurimas Navys, a former special forces operative and a security expert, highlighted the lack of a common national defence plan. According to him, this plan should be comprehensive and include civil resistance.
Despite being in the pipeline since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine last year, there has been no strategy yet.
“The military has its plan, everything is in order there, the Armed Forces are ready. But I don't know how our country will defend itself,” said Navys.
The plan has been in the works for a long time, and some of the things that were published sound “more like slogans” than a concrete plan of action, he added.
“Citizens need to see a plan with actions, resources, and goals. It would be good for people to know what is expected of them, what they should do,” said Navys.
Unfortunately, we are nowhere near the end result, he added.
Plans moving ahead
Lithuania is now establishing a system of Komendatūros (Commendant‘s Office), which would replace the peacetime municipal administrations.
In wartime, people who were able to fight, including hunters, members of the Riflemen‘s Union, and retired soldiers, would then cooperate with the new administrations.
“They are integrated into the defence plans in each municipality. According to the law, the Komendatūros does several very important things – they fight against subversive groups, protect strategic objects and infrastructure, and do many other things,“ Kasčiūnas said.
“Komendatūra is modelled as a kind of rearguard for the military, but you are also empowering the local people to act in a certain plan,“ he added.
The heads of these wartime administrations are high-ranking officers, who are subordinate to the commander of the military forces. The deputy is a representative of the local National Defence Volunteer Force (KASP) unit or someone from the force who is originally from the region.
Both the commendants and their deputies have already been appointed, according to Kasčiūnas.
The next step is to create a network of resistance fighters, especially in the municipalities closest to the border, the politician added.
“I have sent a request to the defence minister to draw up a clear algorithm on how combatants who have a weapon, who want to contribute to defence, who have the will to resist, [...] will find their place in the defence plans of that command. We are now moving to make sure that every combatant is trained, vetted, and can have a function,“ Kasčiūnas added.
Mental barrier
According to Navys, the former special forces operative, there is a lack of education about civil resistance.
It is because “99.99 percent of politicians and decision-makers do not believe that Russia can attack us”, he said.
“They can talk about it, they can tell us for various reasons how we need to fight, how we need to take certain measures, but they don't believe it,” Navys said. “They don't believe it because they have a solid basis for it, because we are members of NATO, we are members of the European Union, and that gives a solid basis and a reason to think that Russia will not attack us. And this is probably true.”
“The main thing we haven't done in 30 years is education,” Navys said, adding that Finland and Estonia are using schools to prepare their society for defence.
“From the very first days in school, we have to engage with our young men and women and think about what kind of citizens they will grow up to be. We don't do that,” Navys added.
Newsletter
Every Friday morning.
