Restrictions on hiring foreign workers could hamper Lithuania’s economic growth and cost the country hundreds of millions of euros, business reps say, estimating that unfilled jobs could reduce gross domestic product (GDP) by up to €150 million this year and a further €550 million in 2027.
A business press conference titled How Much Will Unjustified Restrictions on Labour Migration Cost Lithuania? was held in Vilnius on Tuesday.
The conference was attended by Živilė Simonaitytė-Vasiliauskienė, an economist at the Lithuanian Confederation of Industrialists; Andrius Romanovskis, president of the Lithuanian Business Confederation; Povilas Drižas, secretary general of the International Transport and Logistics Alliance; and Mantas Gudas, chairman and director of Metalistas Group.
Economist Simonaitytė-Vasiliauskienė said the issue of migration was often subject to different interpretations.
“Most of us probably encounter migrants in one way or another, so we look at this issue through the lens of personal experience and perception,” she said.
There are currently around 227,000 foreign nationals with residence permits in Lithuania. Of these, about 108,000 have temporary residence permits allowing them to live and work in the country.
However, the real number is higher, with around 175,000 foreign nationals working in Lithuania at the beginning of the year, according to Simonaitytė-Vasiliauskienė.
“When we discuss migration, we very often focus on the quota, thinking that all migration is about the migrant quota, which is almost 25,000,” she said.
Lithuania currently operates a quota system for workers arriving from countries outside the European Union.
“However, if we count only foreign nationals who have residence permits in Lithuania on various grounds, the quota accounts for about 10%. It is certainly a small part of overall migration, just one way of having legal migration to Lithuania, but certainly not the main one,” Simonaitytė-Vasiliauskienė said.
Citing calculations by the Bank of Lithuania, she said foreign nationals working in Lithuania had generated 45% of GDP growth between 2019 and 2024.
According to the Confederation of Industrialists economist, if the quota remained in place, the state would lose out on GDP that could otherwise be generated, as well as tax revenue.
“This year, as we all know, the quota was exhausted in September. So this year alone, we estimate that the quota running out before the end of the year could potentially mean about €100 million in GDP not being generated in Lithuania.
“Obviously, these are economic calculations, and they can be debated, but under the worst-case scenario, that figure could reach as much as €150 million,” Simonaitytė-Vasiliauskienė said.
She estimated that restrictions imposed by the quota could also result in between €20 million and €25 million in lost tax revenue this year.
The impact could be even greater in 2027 if the current restrictions remained in place. According to Simonaitytė-Vasiliauskienė, Lithuania could potentially fail to generate around €500 million in GDP and lose about €90 million in tax revenue.
Most foreign workers are in transport
Drižas, secretary general of the International Transport and Logistics Alliance, said citizens of non-EU countries currently made up a significant proportion of the transport sector workforce.
Around 80,000 drivers work in the sector, he said, which employs about 150,000 Lithuanian and foreign nationals in total.
“This means that the added value created by these people is not limited to the taxes they pay and the profits earned by companies, which are also taxed. Those 80,000 drivers effectively create jobs for another 60,000 of our fellow citizens. These are well-paid, high-value-added jobs,” he said.
Drižas rejected the suggestion that these workers were “cheap labour”. He said those coming to Lithuania under the quota system were skilled workers.
“Politicians often say: ‘Pay more and Lithuanians will come.’ It is worth mentioning that wages in the transport sector grew by almost 12% in 2025, compared with almost 9% nationally.
“So wages here are growing faster than the national average, but there are still no Lithuanians willing to work as drivers. Not because we do not want to employ them, but simply because they do not exist,” Drižas said.
According to the transport sector representative, these workers spend only about 10% of their time in Lithuania and 90% abroad.
“These people who come here are only statistical, paper migrants – they are not physically here,” he said.
Gudas, chairman and director of Metalistas Group, said the company employed around 100 people, roughly a quarter of whom were from Ukraine, Belarus, the Philippines, and Uzbekistan.
“Today, we would gladly employ another 15 people and could launch an additional shift, but we are facing the aforementioned problem of a shortage of workers and specialists.
“We cannot put together a team of welders and assemblers. We also cannot employ two painters or a forklift driver, and we cannot employ a technologist – nor would it make sense to do so. It is just like in a restaurant: if the chef is not working, the waiter is not needed either,” he said.
Romanovskis, head of the Business Confederation lobby, said Lithuania was fundamentally facing a labour shortage.
“If you ask employers what the number one problem is, the number one problem is the shortage of labour, whether it is a small company, industry or transport,” he said.
However, Romanovskis agreed that migration needed to be controlled.
“Everything is understandable – national security priorities are just as important to us as citizens,” Romanovskis said.
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