After Lithuanian intelligence presented its annual national security report where it warned about Russia’s ability to launch ‘limited military action’ against NATO within five years, Prime Minister Gintautas Paluckas says there is no need for alarm.
“The current planning, as outlined and approved by the State Defence Council, is sufficient to address the threats identified today,” Paluckas told reporters in Vilnius.
In their latest National Threat Assessment report published on Friday, the State Security Department and the Second Investigation Department under the Defence Ministry said that the further growth of Russia’s military power will depend directly on the course of the war in Ukraine.
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“The reduced demand on the front line would allow Russia to accelerate the formation of new troops and increase its reserves of arms and ammunition,” the agencies said.
The report says that while Russia’s ability to use military force against NATO is currently very limited, it is likely that, in the near future, the country will have enough resources not only to continue the war in Ukraine but also to expand its capabilities.
In 2022, Russia announced military reform plans which would see a 30–50 percent increase in the number of personnel, weapons, and combat equipment in the western direction.
As part of the reform, Russia plans to boost its military personnel to 1.5 million, an ambition that Lithuanian intelligence considers “feasible”.
Paluckas emphasised that these are only potential scenarios that may not materialise.
“We’re talking about theoretical scenarios – if sanctions were lifted, if the war in Ukraine stopped, if Russia continued with a similar army modernisation plan. There are a lot of ifs. But don’t forget that we aren’t basing our decisions on ifs. We’re taking the right steps to strengthen both our own security and that of the region,” the prime minister said.
“National security is indivisible. Steps are being taken to fund defence and strengthen intelligence agencies. Likewise, the provision and quality of public services is an integral part of national security, and all actions and steps are being taken,” he added.
In January, Lithuania’s State Defence Council decided to aim for an additional 12 billion to 13 billion euros in military spending by 2030, which would amount to 5–6 percent of GDP.
The headline and quotes were amended following BNS's updated version of the story
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