As the United States intensifies pressure on Ukraine and Russia to negotiate an end to the war launched by Moscow in 2022, more than half of Lithuanians say they do not trust Washington’s mediation efforts, according to a new poll commissioned by BNS and conducted by the public opinion research firm Vilmorus.
The nationally representative survey found that 52.3% of respondents said they distrust or rather distrust the US role in peace negotiations, while only 23.3% said they trust or rather trust it. The remaining 24.4% had no opinion.
Unmet expectations
Remigijus Motuzas, chair of the Lithuanian parliament’s Committee on Foreign Affairs and a member of the Social Democratic Party, said the public’s scepticism stems from high expectations that have not been fulfilled.
“People in Lithuania understandably hoped for quicker action and results. It was promised that the war would end within 100 days, then we heard there would be negotiations, and so on. The latest talks in Istanbul, for example, have not lived up to those hopes and have fuelled distrust,” Motuzas told BNS.
Supporters of Ukraine were also shaken in March by a public confrontation between US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the White House, followed by Washington’s decision to temporarily halt military aid to Kyiv.
Some critics accused Trump of conceding too much to Russian President Vladimir Putin during negotiations.
Broad discontent with US leadership
Dovilė Jakniūnaitė, a professor at Vilnius University’s Institute of International Relations and Political Science, said the poll results reflect wider dissatisfaction with the current US administration’s actions.
“These results are likely influenced by the overall tone and decisions – or even hints at decisions – from the administration in the past four and a half months,” she told BNS. “We’ve seen wavering communication, pressure on Ukraine to enter negotiations, and ambiguous signals to NATO, including suggestions that the US might not offer support unless European countries increase defence spending. Then there were the threats concerning Greenland.”
President Trump has previously proposed acquiring Greenland, an autonomous Danish territory, and has suggested that the US might not defend NATO members that fail to meet defence spending targets.
Shortly after such statements, Lithuania announced plans to raise its defence spending to 5–6% of GDP between 2026 and 2030. Officials insist the decision was unrelated to US rhetoric.
Changing attitudes
Motuzas said he does not believe distrust of Washington’s mediation role necessarily reflects a shift in general Lithuanian attitudes toward the US.
“These issues aren’t directly connected. Some people believe that the US military presence here is essential and don’t necessarily associate that with goodwill,” he said. “Still, the US does pay attention to how it is perceived by different countries.”
In April, US broadcaster NBC reported that the Pentagon was considering withdrawing about 10,000 troops from Eastern Europe. That sparked concerns in Lithuania about the future of approximately 1,000 US troops stationed there. In response, Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda urged the public to rely on official information, noting that no plans for withdrawal had been communicated.
Jakniūnaitė added that if a similar poll were conducted asking about trust in the US as a security guarantor, the results would likely be somewhat more favourable.
“For many years, Lithuanians have held the strongest pro-American views in Europe. That’s what makes this shift so interesting – we’re seeing a clear change in sentiment and a broader reevaluation of what it means to have a reliable strategic partner,” said Jakniūnaitė, who heads the university’s Department of International Relations.
This week’s release of the 2025 Global Democracy Perception Index also showed a decline in the US’s global standing. The number of countries where the US is viewed more positively than negatively dropped from 76% to 45%. The US outscored China in just four European countries, including Lithuania.
Mixed messaging from politicians
Jakniūnaitė said a disconnect between politicians and the public is adding to the confusion.
“Officials continue to present the US as Lithuania’s most trustworthy partner, but they’re not engaging in honest conversations about the public’s changing attitudes,” she said. “This creates a gap – people see one reality, but hear something else. That breeds scepticism and can erode trust in foreign policy decisions if it continues.”
Lithuania’s top leaders have refrained from publicly criticising US efforts to broker a ceasefire in Ukraine, instead emphasising the importance of maintaining a positive agenda with Washington.
Motuzas said there is a need for more open debate about foreign policy.
“I think political parties should be speaking publicly about our stance toward the US, NATO and global developments,” he said. “We need to have these discussions.”
Poll results
Respondents in the Vilmorus poll, conducted from May 2 to 12, were asked:
Do you trust US mediation in negotiations for peace in Ukraine?
- Yes – 6.9%
- Rather yes – 16.4%
- Rather no – 22.4%
- No – 29.9%
- No opinion – 24.4%
The survey included 1,000 Lithuanian residents and had a margin of error of 3.1 points.
