Both Lithuania’s prime minister and parliament speaker are calling for improving relations with China. But will this be a meaningful break from the last government’s policies?
Social Democratic Defence Minister Dovilė Šakalienė has been one of the most hawkish politicians in Lithuania when it comes to China. So much so that, in 2021, Beijing slapped a travel ban on her and her family. She has been a vocal supporter of closer ties with Taiwan and spoken about China’s supposed threat to international order.
The government she is part of, however, has expressed a wish for a thaw in Vilnius-Beijing relations.
When approached by LRT TV’s programme Savaitė, Šakalienė did not comment on her current position on relations with China, but her spokesman said that the minister had not changed her opinion.
The position of Social Democratic Prime Minister Gintautas Palucas has not changed either. In the past, he criticised the policies of the former government regarding China. Right after last October’s elections, even before taking up office, he hinted that his government would seek to improve relations with Beijing.
Relations between the two countries soured in late 2021 when Taiwan opened a representative office in Vilnius. Accusing Lithuania of violating the one-China principle, Beijing downgraded diplomatic relations with Vilnius – from the ambassadorial level to that of chargé d’affaires – and imposed undeclared trade sanctions.
Paluckas would like to restore the diplomatic representation to what it was prior to the fallout and have the two countries exchange ambassadors.
He is not alone. Saulius Skvernelis, speaker of the parliament and leader of the Democrats “For Lithuania” party, spoke last week: “We should act like the rest of the European community. We should have the same level of diplomatic representation as Poland, Germany, Finland, Sweden, Estonia, and Latvia.”
But with a proviso: “If there is such goodwill on the part of China, and if China takes that step first,” he added.
MP Remigijus Motuzas, who chairs the parliament’s Committee on Foreign Affairs, says there are very practical reasons why Lithuania should have an ambassador in Beijing.
“As diplomats, we say that we should restore the level [of diplomatic representation] because there are people, including Lithuanians who live and work [in China], who need consular services. There are transits, visas, accidents happen,” says Motuzas.
According to him, China has accepted that there is and will be a Taiwanese representation in Lithuania.
“I think they have accepted it and understand it and are observing,” he says. “And we’re talking about just commercial economic relations that also benefit China.”
Fang Mei, deputy of the Chinese Mission to the European Union, has recently produced a statement, saying Beijing is open to dialogue with Lithuania, but reiterating that Taiwan is an integral part of China.
“The door of dialogue is always open, and China is ready to strengthen communication and exchanges with Lithuania on the basis of respect and common approach, and to seek ways to overcome the current situation while respecting the ‘one China’ principle,” Fang Mei said in the statement.
Seemingly less enthusiastic about any possible rapprochement, Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys says there are yet no signs that Lithuanian-Chinese relations could change for the better or for the worse.
Changes are not happening quickly, he insists: “Things are moving, every day something is moving, but when it happens, we will let you know.”
MP Matas Maldeikis, of the conservative TS-LKD party whose government oversaw the tensions with China, says normalisation would be welcome but any shifts in Lithuania’s China policy are more rhetoric than substance.
“When it was campaigning, the current government was very critical of the China policy, so they need to show that something different is happening, but there’s nothing new,” he says.
And it’s not just Lithuania, he adds – the EU rhetoric on China has been changing since Donald Trump took office in the US.
With Trump targeting both China and, potentially, Europe with tariffs, “it’s a new game”, Maldeikis says. “China is changing its approach – it sees that this is an opportunity to get [Europe] on its side, to show that we are both suffering from Trump,” he says.
It is not only the Lithuanian government that seeks change. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has said that there is a need to engage constructively with China.
“In her speech, von der Leyen stressed not only the importance of Europe for the US, but also the importance of relations with China and the potential for closer cooperation in the future in the economic sphere,” notes Raigirdas Boruta, an associate expert at the Centre for Geopolitics and Security Studies in Vilnius.
On the economic front, China imposed sanctions on imports from Lithuania in 2022 without officially notifying the country and, according to Vilnius, in violation of World Trade Organization rules.
By now, however, trade has largely resumed, according to Lithuanian businesses, even though Chinese imports to Lithuania are growing much faster than Lithuanian exports to China.
“If you look at trade, Chinese imports to Lithuania have grown 2.5 times, while our exports to China have grown from zero. In 2021, it was worth 150 million euros, at the end of 2022, only 60 million euros, now it has recovered to 110-120 million euros. It has not reached the previous level yet,” points out Vidmantas Janulevičius, president of the Lithuanian Confederation of Industrialists.
He says it would be great to trade with everyone, but Lithuania must proceed with caution: “We need to take a balanced view – if there are benefits, use them, but not at the cost of our own security, not at the cost of our own future.”
Boruta, of the Centre for Geopolitics and Security Studies, says what is missing is a clear vision of what Vilnius wants from its relations with China.
“What is missing is communication, what does it mean the normalisation of relations? These friendly signals are driven by pragmatism, they do not show a change in attitude towards China, but a further strategy of risk reduction,” he says.
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