Berlin's plans to deploy a combat brigade to Lithuania in 2026 remain unaffected by the coalition collapse, the German Defence Ministry and the opposition Conservatives insist. However, the necessary legislation for the brigade has stalled in the political chaos.
One of the two crucial bills is still on its way to the German parliament, the other is already in the Bundestag.
The parliament has not yet ratified the treaty signed between Vilnius and Berlin in September, which defines the rights of German soldiers, civilians and their families who will be stationed in the Baltic country.
Lithuania’s Seimas ratified the treaty in October, with German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius promising to follow suit in early 2025. However, his ministry is now unable to give a clear timeline.
In a written reply to LRT.lt, the German Defence Ministry said the legislation was submitted to the Cabinet on November 6 and will then go to the Bundesrat, the federal council, being passed on to the Bundestag, the parliament.
“The possible dissolution of the Bundestag has no impact on its ability to carry out its parliamentary mandate. The Bundesrat and the Bundestag will decide on the dates of the hearings independently. It is therefore not possible to predict specific dates,” the ministry said.
The second law is the so-called “add-ons package”, which creates financial incentives for soldiers who decide to serve in Lithuania.
This is expected to attract the almost 5,000 soldiers needed to join the brigade.
According to the Defence Ministry, a draft law has already been submitted to the German Bundestag, but the timeline is unpredictable.
On November 6, the ruling coalition collapsed when the Social Democrat Chancellor Olaf Scholz sacked the Liberal Finance Minister Christian Lindner. With the loss of the third member (FDP), the Social Democrats (SPD) and the Greens (Die Grüne) no longer have a sufficient majority in the Bundestag.
Scholz said he hoped that key laws, including those that attract a broad consensus, would be supported by the opposition conservative (CDU/CSU) group.
However, the Conservatives which are leading the polls pressured Scholz by not promising to support legislation until the Chancellor holds a vote of no confidence.
Scholz then reached a compromise to hold a vote of confidence on December 16, which could pave the way for early elections on February 23 next year.
Scholz gave a speech in the Bundestag on Wednesday, defending the government’s decisions and appealing to the opposition for support.
However, the leader of the parliamentary opposition and CDU/CSU chancellor candidate Friedrich Merz said Scholz “cannot impose any conditions”.
The Conservatives did pledge support for some laws, such as the amendments to the Federal Constitutional Court Act, but demanded that all other issues be negotiated in each Bundestag plenary session.
LRT.lt contacted the Bundestag political groups for information regarding the laws important for the brigade’s deployment.
Speaking off the record, politicians said that there was talk of clear timelines in the current chaos, as the agenda can change any day.
Meanwhile, the CDU/CSU group has signalled its support for the brigade’s deployment, but has not promised to back Scholz blindly.
In his reply to LRT.lt, CDU/CSU MEP Florian Hahn, responsible for security policy issues, criticised the slow pace of the brigade’s deployment.
“A year has passed and the German government has not submitted any draft legislation on the Lithuanian brigade for approval. As soon as the draft law is submitted to the Bundestag, we will assess it responsibly and, if necessary, submit amendments,” he said.
“German-Lithuanian cooperation is of particular importance to the CDU/CSU group in the Bundestag and we will not jeopardise it in any way,” he added.
Polls show some 33 percent of the electorate backing CDU/CSU if the elections were held next Sunday. However, this also means that they would not achieve a majority and would have to look for coalition partners.
The Social Democrats, which are polling third with 15 percent or the Greens (fourth with 12 percent), could help form a ruling coalition.
The Liberal FDP, the traditional partners of the Conservatives, are unlikely to reach the 5-percent barrier. In contrast, the populist alliance of Sahra Wagenknecht are expected to get 6 percent of the vote.
Meanwhile, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) also has a good chance of gaining ground – they are projected to come second with 17 percent. However, the traditional parties said they would not cooperate with AfD.
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