Lithuania wants NATO to deploy air defence systems in the country. Experts acknowledge that air defence is Lithuania’s weakest point but note: one thing Ukraine’s war has taught us is that downing a drone does not require expensive missiles.
The French-Italian joint air defence system is based in Romania, on the border with Ukraine, and is covering NATO’s eastern flank.
“This system is capable of destroying all types of aircraft, cruise missiles, fighters and helicopters. The aim of the system is to detect, track and, if necessary, intercept,” explains Jean Baptiste, head of the MAMBA air defence system.
Lithuania also wants to have more air defence systems on its soil. According to defence expert Darius Antanaitis, the war in Ukraine has shown that “whoever controls the air controls the ground”.
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And this is where Lithuania could face challenges. “Our air defence is quite poorly developed. We have a small number of medium-range air defence missiles,” says Antanaitis.
“We have quality, but quantity is still lacking,” agrees another military analyst, Giedrius Petkevičius.
Lithuania plans to acquire more NASAMS medium-range defence systems later this year.
“Just having this system is like a big deterrent hedgehog for enemy planes,” believes Linas Dungveckis, a contributor to the defence awareness raising project Locked N' Loaded.
Lithuania is asking from its NATO allies for moth more quality and quantity. A breakthrough is expected at the NATO meeting in Vilnius this July. But experts say the allies can only plug the holes in Lithuania’s air defence temporarily.
“It’s like asking your neighbour to give you a ride to work every day. At some point, they will tell you to get your own car,” Antanaitis says.
But it’s not all that simple. Effective air defence consists of short-, medium- and long-range systems. The number of systems is also important.
“You don’t just have a few NASAMS batteries, set them up in Vilnius, Kaunas and Klaipėda, and you’re covered," says Dungveckis.
The allied Patriot long-range air defence system are deployed on the border with Ukraine. The Baltic countries are also asking NATO for these systems, since they are too expensive for the Balts to procure on their own. This system is also important for deterrence.
“We have to have it, especially as our neighbour Kaliningrad is one of the most concentrated areas for anti-aircraft, anti-ship and anti-tank systems,” says Artur Plokšto, a lecturer at the Military Academy in Vilnius.
But despite plans to strengthen NATO’s eastern flank, experts are sceptical about the prospects of immediate help.
“Today, it would be quite difficult to have an air defence system delivered to us, because priorities are a bit different,” says Antanaitis, noting that Ukraine needs it more.
The Ukrainians are training to defend themselves against Iranian drone attacks launched by the Russians. Experts suggest learning the lessons of the war in Ukraine.
“Not expensive precision missiles, but something simpler. I think it would be a good idea for Lithuania to have a small-calibre, tubular, rapid-fire anti-aircraft artillery,” Plokšto adds.
For example, experts say, this could be the L70 anti-aircraft guns, slightly more modern than those handed over to Ukraine. This is more effective than targeting Iranian drones, which cost some 20,000 euros, with NASAMS missiles.
“The cost of a single missile would be a dozen times higher than the value of the target,” Petkevičius says.
“The cheaper the drone, the cheaper the air defence we should use, although we can’t always choose,” agrees Dungveckis.
According to the experts, it is precisely these cheaper methods to fight drones that Lithuania does not have. And it doesn’t need the help of its allies to get them.
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