Last year, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia imported record or close to record levels of goods from Belarus, despite the three Baltic states’ assertive stance on sanctions against the Minsk regime.
In 2020, Lithuania imported 1 billion euros worth of goods from Belarus, 50 percent more compared to a year before. The level of imports was a third higher than the previous peak in 2015, according to the Financial Times.
Estonia imported 522 million euros worth of Belarusian goods last year, double the level of the 2020 imports. It exceeded the previous peak of 2018 by more than a fifth.
Latvia’s imports from Belarus in 2021 were two-thirds higher from a year before, totalling 407 million euros, just two percent below the 2011 peak.
Growing trade volumes stand in stark contrast to the Baltic state’s geopolitics, experts quoted by FT said. Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia were strongly advocating for the EU sanctions on the Lukashenko regime after the rigged Belarusian presidential elections in 2020 and clampdown on the opposition.
“The Baltic states are in the process of discovering that translating strong and principled foreign policy positions into an effective sanction regime is not such a simple matter, even in the most clear-cut cases,” Tomas Jermalavičius, head of studies at Estonia’s International Centre for Defence and Security, told FT.
In his words, many logistics and transport companies in the Baltics have close relationships with Belarusian state-owned businesses and “always seize opportunities for extra earnings […] if there is no pressure from the governments”.
Last month, the Lithuanian government almost collapsed after it became clear that the transit of Belarusian fertilisers via Lithuania continued despite the US sanctions on the state-owned potash giant Belaruskali. The country’s foreign and transport ministers offered their resignations that were rejected by Prime Minister Ingrida Šimonytė.
Read more: Lithuanian government crisis – how did it get here?
The Lithuanian foreign ministry told FT that there was no legal basis in the EU to implement sanctions imposed by a third country.
The Estonian foreign ministry said the imports from Belarus were “goods in transit” and were carefully checked against sanctions lists.
According to the Latvian foreign ministry, the ongoing trade with Belarus “is currently taking place in compliance with the sanction regime imposed”.
In the words of Jarmalavičius, the Baltic states should not waste their “political capital and credibility […] for the sake of a few hundred million euros that their businesses could earn each year by further dealing with Belarus”.
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