The novel coronavirus may claim around 200 lives in Lithuania, but the spread of Covid-19 will depend very much on the use of protective measures, according to a model presented by Vilnius University researchers.
According to one forecast, which Professor Remigijus Leipus has termed the “realistic scenario,” the total number of deaths from the coronavirus in the country will stand at 208.
If the predictions prove to be correct, Covid-19 will kill eight times more people than seasonal flu. In the 2018-2019 season, the latter claimed 26 lives in Lithuania.
The epidemic is likely to reach the peak in about a month, Leipus told reporters on Friday.
“It should be around the beginning of May that the number of sick people will be at the highest and the strain on hospitals will peak,” according to him.
The “pessimistic scenario” presented by the researchers sees 247 people dying from Covid-19 in Lithuania.
So far, nine people have died in the country, while the number of infections reached 696 on Friday.
The forecasts were modelled by a group of researchers that included mathematicians, statisticians and computer scientists, according to Vilnius University professor Alfredas Račkauskas.
The “realistic scenario” also predicts 2,264 infections by the end of April and 4,597 by the end of the year.
The corresponding numbers in the “pessimist scenario” are 2,870 and 5,883.